Statistics

Do all races prefer to date within their own ethnic group? And what does that mean for the dating world?

OkCupid's research into the racial bias and racial composition of its members found that white members of the online dating site prefer to message other white users. This preference might be intentional, or it might not. It might be caused by a racial bias - conscious or unconscious - or be a result of the fact that white members outnumber users of other ethnic backgrounds on the site. One thing, however, is clear from OkCupid's research: "Given equal choice, every race strongly prefers itself." The data looks like this:

Preference For Own Race vs. Random Individual Of Another Race

• Whites: 2.9x
• Blacks: 4.3x
• Latinos: 4.2x
• Asians: 11.5x

White members actually prefer themselves the least, in comparison to other ethnic groups, but they represent such a large percentage of the online dating population that it's impossible for white users to avoid connecting with other white users unless they are content with dating pools that are much, much smaller.

To see what would happen if circumstances were different, if another race outnumbered whites 19:1, the OkCupid team ran a simulation in which Asians were the dominant group, and all other users were in the minority. Under those circumstances, Asian users would send messages to other Asian users 98% percent of the time, and would also be the most popular message recipients for users of all other ethnic backgrounds (White senders: 74%, Latino senders: 71%, Black senders: 66%). Insularity, according to OkCupid's findings, is common across all cultures.

This insularity, Christian Rudder notes, becomes especially clear when you take a look at cities with larger non-white user bases. As their numbers increase, members of minority populations tend to become increasingly inward-looking. In the 150 cities with the most black users, black members send 2.5% more messages to each other for every 1% increase in the black population. In Baltimore, for instance, 1 out of every 5 users is black, but half of the messages from black users are sent to other black users - a rate that is more than twice what would be expected.

The hypothetical scenarios Rudder and OkCupid created for this experiment will not be hypothetical for much longer, and soon much of this data is likely to become reality. According to the Census Bureau, white people will no longer be the majority in the United States by approximately the year 2050, although that projection doesn't necessarily mean we have a post-racial future to look forward to. Even with increased equality amongst races, OkCupid's research indicates that "people still like to date someone who looks like they do," so that "even when white people aren't the majority, society will be as divided as ever."

When we left off, Christian Rudder and the OkCupid research team were tackling a unique question: What if there weren't so many white people?

The online dating world - and, in fact, the Internet at large - is dominated by white users, who make up the largest percentage of both OkCupid members (74%) and message recipients on the site (89%). After gathering and analyzing data based on 82 million messages sent on OkCupid, the researchers rearranged their findings to create an artificial environment in which the online dating world was not dominated by white members. The numbers of average monthly messages received, per person, changed across the board:

• For white members the number decreased, though not significantly.
• For Latinos, the number increased and surpassed the number for whites.
• For Asians the number skyrocketed, placing them ahead of all other ethnic groups when it came to the number of messages received per month.
• For black members the number also increased, though not quite enough to overtake the users of other ethnic backgrounds.

Age played a role, but a relatively minor one. Asians proved to be the most popular users regardless of the age of the message senders, receiving at least 30% - but often more - of the messages on OkCupid. Latinos also maintained a consistent level of popularity, hovering around 25% for all users aged 18-50. White members saw a decrease in popularity as senders aged, beginning at 25% for 18 year old users and steadily dropping to 15% for 50 year old users. The popularity of black members, in contrast, rose as senders aged.

Next, Rudder put together a fascinating chart that must be experienced to really be understood. The graph, called "Who People Are Messaging" takes a look at the relationship between "racial bias" and "racial composition." Each factor can be adjusted to show what the graph would look like under current conditions, as well as how the chart changes when racial bias no longer exists and racial composition is equal. Rudder also breaks the results down into graphs based on messaging preferences by age, in a racially-balanced world.

But as interesting as graphs, charts, and numbers can be, eventually we have to get back to reality and ask: What does all of this look like in the real world?

"The kind of messaging imbalance that currently exists has observable effects on how people think about race and dating," writes Rudder. "Search for 'interracial couple' on a stock photo site: you'll find a rainbow of Asians, Latinos, Blacks, and Indians, all hanging out with their white significant others." And if you enter "Why do ______ [insert non-white race of your choice here] women like..." into Google, it autocompletes with "white men."

Despite OkCupid's findings indicating that Asians are the most desired racial group in the country, white members are still dominating online dating sites simply because there is a greater number of them, and they seem to prefer to date within their ethnic group...which brings up the question for next time: Do all races prefer to date within their own ethnic group? And what does that mean for the dating world?

The OkTrends blog has already taken a look at "How Your Race Affects The Messages You Get" and "The REAL 'Stuff White People Like,'" and now the OkCupid research team is at it again, this time taking on the subject of race by examining race relations in America and asking the question: What if there weren't so many white people?

"Since most thinking about race hinges on the fact that one particular race predominates," writes Christian Rudder, "what if, using statistical models, you could make that predominance disappear?" Currently, white members receive more messages than non-white members on OkCupid, though it is unclear if this is an indication of their "popularity" or their population. If the world - or at least the users of OkCupid - were more racially balanced, would that statistic change?

To find out, OkCupid ran a study based on 82 million messages sent by members over the course of the last few months. The researchers found that OkCupid is actually less white than the rest of the Internet in America, but they were unable to make direct group-to-group comparisons because Quantcast, the media measurement service that provides their demographics, doesn't provide multiracial data. White members made up 74% of the OkCupid population, followed by:

Other: 13%

Latino: 5%

Black/Asian: 4% each (a tie)

White members also received the vast - and I mean vast - majority of messages sent on the site (a gigantic 89%!). In fact, white members were the most popular message recipients regardless of the senders' ethnicity.

After gathering the basic data, the OkCupid team experimented with their findings, using Asian users as an example. They found that Asian members sent 3 times as many messages to white members as they did to other Asian people. The breakdown:

White: 71%

Asian: 23%

Latino: 5%

Black: 2%

Taking into account the fact that white members outnumber Asian members 19:1, however, the findings can be viewed differently. Rudder rearranges all the ratios from the study and, via a little math wizardry, comes to the conclusion that, if there were an equal number of Asian people and white people on the site, Asian users would actually overwhelmingly prefer to message other Asians. In a world in which the population was not dominated by white folks, in which every user had a completely equal chose, the average number of monthly messages each ethnic group received would be very different.

...but you'll have to tune in next time to find out the details!

Spark Networks reported their fourth quarter financial results this month. Revenue for the last quarter was down 9 percent to $10.1 million with a net income of $600 thousand. Net income is up substantially this quarter though since in quarter 4 of 2009 they reported a loss of $9.6 million. For the 12 months of 2010 revenue decreased 10 percent to $40.9 million with net income at $3.7 million when compared to 2009. In 2009 Spark Networks reported a net loss of $6.4 million.

For q4 2010 the number of average paying subscribers for the entire company was 160,744. This is a decrease of 5 percent when compared to the same quarter last year. For the entire year of 2010 the number of average paying subscribers was down 2 percent from 2009 to 162,311. Breaking average paying subscribers down by segment for quarter 4 2010 you can see all experienced a decrease when compared to the same quarter in 2009:

• Other Affinity Networks - 65,172 (-4%)
• Jewish Networks - 89,723 (-1%)
• General Market Networks - 5,174 (-46%)

For the full 2010 Q4 release visit Spark Networks News Room.

Related Story: Spark Networks Third Quarter 2010 Financials

Cupid PLC head office is located in the city of Edinburgh in Scotland. They employ about 15 people at the head office and another 200 or so in the Ukraine.

Cupid made a few announcements earlier this month about their final results for the year 2010:

• Revenues increase by 202 percent to £25.7m. In 2009 revenue was £8.5m
• Pre-tax profits for Cupid rose to £4.16m from £983,000 in 2009
• 42 percent of Q4 revenues came from outside the UK
• Their goal is to have more than 50% of revenues coming from North America by the end of 2011
• When you combine all of Cupid's dating sites they have 13 million customer profiles registered worldwide

For more information on this story you can read the announcement on the London Stock Exchange. To find out more about Cupid PLC dating sites you can read our Cupid.com review.

While Badoo.com is not a common name in the U.S., it’s fast becoming one of the most popular dating sites in the world. This week, the company announced that its user base has surpassed 100 million in 180 countries, mostly due to its hybrid business model, combining traditional online dating with social networking.

The company has also recently launched a Facebook app, which has gained 25 million users.

Users of Badoo.com can set up a profile and search for matches like traditional online dating, but the site seems to be more focused on “real-time” interactions, including chatting, flirting, and meeting as many new people as possible. They also offer geo-location dating. When you use the Badoo app on your mobile phone, you can meet others in your immediate area right away, rather than scheduling and planning a date.

"The biggest shift is from "marital dating" to "social dating" or "casual dating," says Bart Swanson, Badoo COO. "Online dating is no longer all about meeting a future spouse. It's about meeting lots of people in a short time, at short notice, in an easy, fun, relaxed manner."

While the site is popular in many European, Latin American and African countries, their U.S. presence remains virtually unknown.

“In the English-speaking world, we’re the biggest thing you’ve never heard of,” Badoo COO Bart Swanson tells Thinq.co.uk. “But that is now starting to change.”

According to Badoo, their user base is expected to reach 200 million by 2012. They are inviting U.S. users to try the site on their home page, hoping to tap into the saturated online dating market here. With the growing popularity of mobile dating apps, they just might succeed.